The Cross-Section of Risk and Returns
Review of Financial Studies, 2020, 33 (5), 1927-1979.
New Methods for the Cross Section of Returns Conference
Imperial Hedge Funds Conference
Value Investing Conference
A common practice in the finance literature is to create characteristic portfolios by sorting on characteristics associated with average returns. We show that the resultant portfolios are likely to capture not only the priced risk associated with the characteristic but also unpriced risk. We develop a procedure to remove this unpriced risk using covariance information estimated from past returns. We apply our methodology to the five Fama-French characteristic portfolios. The squared Sharpe ratio of the optimal combination of the resultant characteristic-efficient portfolios is 2.13, compared with 1.17 for the original characteristic portfolios.
Savings and Consumption When Children Move Out
Review of Finance, 2016, 20 (6), 2349-2377.
Joachim R. Frick Best Paper Prize
International Young Scholar SOEP Symposium
International Pension Workshop
We show, using data from the Italian Survey on Household Income and Wealth and the German Socio-economic Panel, that household consumption drops after a child moves out of a household, while at the same time adult-equivalent consumption increases significantly. After all children are gone, parents upgrade their personal lifestyle to a level approximately that of childless peers, and save only a small proportion of the freed-up resources. Since parents had fewer resources to save while they were young, retirement preparedness among them is a more serious concern than among childless individuals.
The Dynamics of Disagreement
R&R @ Review of Financial Studies
AQR Insight Award - Honorable Mention
institutional assets award
We infer how the estimates of firm value by "optimists" and "pessimists" evolve in response to information shocks by examining returns and disagreement measures for portfolios of short-sale constrained stocks which have experienced large gains or large losses. Our analysis suggests the presence of two groups, one of which overreacts to new information and remains biased over about five years, and a second group which underreacts and whose expectations are unbiased after about one year. Our results have implications for the belief dynamics that underly the momentum and long-term reversal effect.
Overconfidence, Information Diffusion, and Mispricing Persistence; Overpriced Winners; Betting Against Winners
Streaks in Daily Returns
PanAgora Crowell Prize Seminar
A simple model of return extrapolation suggests that streaks in returns, which we define as n-day consecutive over-/under-performance relative to the market, predict future returns. We test this prediction using daily U.S. data and find strong empirical support. Buying stocks with negative streaks and selling stocks with positive streaks yields annualized Sharpe ratios around 2. We replicate the results in international markets and are able to increase the Sharpe ratio to above 3 by diversifying across regions. We argue that liquidity is unlikely to explain the results as streak portfolio returns based on mid-quote-prices are strongest among stocks with the lowest bid-ask spreads.